Fall 2026 Market Outlook: The Latest Data for Richmond, Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, New Kent & Hampton Roads
"Every week I sit down with the latest MLS and regional research so my clients never have to guess what is happening in their community. With fall officially here, I wanted to pull together a clear, up-to-date outlook across Richmond, Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, New Kent, and the Hampton Roads area. Here is what the freshest numbers tell me about where prices, inventory, and days on market stand, and what the coming months look like for your next move."
- Shannon Russell, MRP
What is the Virginia real estate market doing as we head into fall 2026? The short answer is that we are in the healthiest, most balanced market we have seen in years. Prices are still climbing at a steady single-digit pace in most communities, active inventory keeps growing, and homes are taking a bit longer to sell than they did during the frenzied years of 2021 through 2023. That is good news for buyers, who finally have real choices, and it remains good news for well-priced sellers, who are still seeing timely results.
The figures below are compiled from the Central Virginia Multiple Listing Service (CVR MLS), the Real Estate Information Network (REIN) for Hampton Roads, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), the Richmond Association of REALTORS, and trusted research sources including Redfin Housing Market Data, the Zillow Home Value Index, Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage survey, and county-level market reports. Every statistic reflects the most current complete data available as of mid-September 2026. Let me walk you through what the numbers mean for each community you care about.
Greater Richmond Metro: Steady Prices, More Inventory, a More Even Playing Field
The greater Richmond metro, spanning Richmond City, Henrico County, Chesterfield County, and Hanover County, continues to show the steady, sustainable conditions we have tracked all year. The metro-wide median home price sits around $415,000 in the most recent reporting, with the Richmond Association of REALTORS and CVR MLS putting the metro-wide single-family median sale price near $434,900, up about 2.3 percent year-over-year. Median listing prices from Realtor.com and FRED have trended closer to $450,000 in recent windows, which is a reminder that listing prices run above sale prices.
Active inventory is where the story stays most encouraging. Realtor.com data via FRED showed roughly 3,278 active listings across the Richmond metro in August, up about 18 percent year-over-year, which translates to roughly 2.1 to 2.8 months of supply depending on the county. That is a meaningful shift from the sub-two-month conditions that defined much of the early 2020s. Median days on market for the metro came in around 37 days in the June data, while county-level reports show many communities averaging closer to three weeks. Buyers finally have room to compare, and sellers who price realistically are still rewarded.
One detail worth flagging this week: mortgage rates are holding in the upper part of their recent range. Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.76 percent as of September 10, 2026, up from 6.71 percent the prior week and up from about 6.35 percent a year ago. It is a modest move, not a dramatic one, but it is a reminder that locking a rate and getting pre-approved sooner rather than later can save buyers meaningful money over the life of a loan.
The Fall Snapshot at a Glance
Every community has its own market personality. Here is the freshest researched data I have for each area I serve, with the most current complete numbers available.
| Community | Median Price (Latest Data) | Days on Market | Inventory Snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond City | ~$402,500, up 4.3% YoY | ~37 to 39 days | ~1,200 active listings |
| Henrico County | ~$421,500, up 4.9% YoY | ~18 days | ~1.9 months of supply |
| Chesterfield County | ~$409,900 to $412,000 | ~19 to 21 days | Widest selection in the metro |
| Hanover County | ~$448,000, up 5.1% YoY | ~22 days | Top-rated schools, steady demand |
| New Kent County | 3-month median ~$354K; Zillow average ~$433K | ~36 days to pending | Virginia's fastest-growing county |
| Hampton Roads Region | ~$389,900 July median, up 5.9% YoY | ~23 days | ~6,100 active listings, up ~7.6% YoY |
| Newport News | ~$324,500, up 6.4% YoY | ~28 days | Affordable Peninsula entry |
| Virginia Beach | Detached-home median ~$480,000 | ~9 to 15 days | Fastest-moving market in the region |
Figures vary modestly by source and reporting window. Medians and days on market reflect the most recent complete data available as of mid-September 2026, drawn from CVR MLS, REIN, FRED, the Richmond Association of REALTORS, Redfin, and Zillow. See the notes at the end of this post for the full list of sources.
Community by Community: What the Numbers Feel Like on the Ground
Richmond City
Richmond City continues to draw a diverse mix of buyers, from young professionals and downsizers to investors and families drawn to walkability and downtown energy. Recent market reporting put the city median sale price near $402,500, up about 4.3 percent year-over-year, with homes taking roughly 37 to 39 days to sell and about 1,200 active listings. The sale-to-list price ratio sits near 98.9 percent, a sign that well-priced homes still command strong offers. One shift worth knowing: roughly 23 percent of Richmond-area listings have seen at least one price reduction, which means there is real negotiation room in many price ranges now. High-demand neighborhoods like The Fan, Museum District, Church Hill, and Jackson Ward still see strong interest, and well-priced homes in walkable locations near the James River and the Virginia Capital Trail often attract multiple offers in the first week. For military families, Richmond City offers a vibrant urban lifestyle with a reasonable drive to most regional bases, including Fort Gregg-Adams and Joint Base Langley-Eustis.
Henrico County
Henrico remains one of the most active and sought-after markets in the region. The latest county reports show a median sale price around $421,500, up about 4.9 percent year-over-year, with homes averaging about 18 days on market and roughly 1.9 months of supply. In high-demand pockets like Short Pump, Glen Allen, and the West End, single-family medians push closer to $520,000, while other corners of the county offer far more accessible entry points. The Varina district in the east still offers some of the county's best value, with spacious lots, quiet streets, and mature trees minutes from downtown Richmond. Henrico is a great example of the region's new balance: inventory is up, but well-priced homes in the right locations still move quickly.
Chesterfield County
Chesterfield continues to offer the widest selection of inventory in the metro, which makes it a prime destination for buyers who want to compare options. The median sale price is approximately $409,900 to $412,000, with homes averaging about 19 to 21 days on market and roughly 2.4 months of supply. Active inventory has grown meaningfully year-over-year, and the county ranks among the closest in the region to a balanced market. Popular communities like Brandermill, Woodlake, and the Midlothian corridor remain strong draws for families who value well-regarded schools and more home for their dollar. If you are looking for where buyers have the most room to compare, and to negotiate, Chesterfield is where I point them first.
Hanover County
Hanover commands a premium price point among the surrounding counties, with a median of approximately $448,000, up about 5.1 percent year-over-year. Homes average about three weeks on market, and the county's excellent school system and larger lot sizes continue to be the primary drivers for family relocations. The Mechanicsville side of the county offers more affordable entry points, with many listings in the $320,000 to $400,000 range, making Hanover a great fit for buyers who want top schools without sacrificing value. It is also one of the counties where builders are offering meaningful incentives right now, which I will get to in the trends below.
New Kent County
New Kent is one of the most exciting stories in the region right now. It has become Virginia's fastest-growing county, with population up about 21.5 percent since 2020, and the market data reflects that momentum. New listings jumped about 36 percent year-over-year in the most recent county-level reporting, and sales have edged upward as well. Median pricing varies by source and window: Redfin's three-month median came in near $354,000 with an average sale price closer to $495,000, while Zillow's average home value sits around $433,000, up about 3.6 percent year-over-year. Homes typically go pending in about 36 days, partly because the inventory mix includes custom builds and estate lots that naturally take longer. New construction remains a major story here, with active communities still drawing military families assigned to the Peninsula bases, remote workers, and families seeking acreage. If you want space, newer homes, and room to breathe, New Kent deserves a hard look.
Prince George, Hopewell, Petersburg and the Tri-Cities
The area surrounding Fort Gregg-Adams continues to offer some of the most affordable housing in the entire region. Prince George County, along with the cities of Hopewell and Petersburg, provides excellent options for military families and first-time buyers who want to stretch their purchasing power while staying close to the installation. The market here moves at a more measured pace than the inner-ring suburbs, giving buyers time to explore options, and consistent demand from the military presence at Fort Gregg-Adams keeps the market healthy. For families with PCS orders, this area represents one of the strongest values in my entire service territory, offering excellent square footage and lot sizes at price points that are hard to find closer to downtown Richmond.
Hampton Roads: Record Prices, More Listings, and a Market That Is Splitting in Two
The Hampton Roads region, including Newport News, Hampton, Williamsburg, James City County, and the Southside cities, continues to show healthy, sustainable conditions. The Real Estate Information Network reported a July 2026 median sale price of approximately $389,900, up about 5.9 percent year-over-year from $368,250 a year earlier, after setting a record around $395,000 in June. Region-wide, homes are selling in about 23 days on average, and active inventory has grown to roughly 6,100 listings, up about 7.6 percent year-over-year. REIN's official reports through mid-2026 also show pending and settled sales ticking upward, a sign the market remains active even as it normalizes.
One of the most interesting developments in the region right now is the growing split between detached homes and attached homes. Single-family homes on the Southside remain fast-moving and competitive, while condos and townhomes are softening, with attached-home days on market rising in places like Norfolk. What that means for you: if you are flexible on home type, there is more leverage in the attached market, while well-priced detached homes still need a ready buyer.
Newport News and the Peninsula
Newport News remains one of the most accessible markets in the region, with a median sale price of approximately $324,500, up about 6.4 percent year-over-year, and homes typically selling in about 28 days. That strong value, combined with proximity to Fort Eustis, Newport News Shipyard, and Joint Base Langley-Eustis, makes it a favorite for military families and first-time buyers. The Peninsula continues to offer some of the best affordability-to-commute ratios in my service area, with Williamsburg a step up in price at a Q2 median near $485,500, up about 7 percent year-over-year, for buyers who want the Historic Triangle lifestyle.
Virginia Beach, Norfolk and the Southside
On the Southside, the detached-home median in Virginia Beach runs around $480,000, with homes there selling in about 9 to 15 days on average, the fastest-moving market in the region. For families assigned to Naval Station Norfolk, JEB Little Creek, or NAS Oceana, the Southside cities offer the most convenient commutes without crossing the bridge-tunnels, and they remain some of the most sought-after locations in all of Hampton Roads.
Six Things to Watch This Fall
1. Inventory Growth Is Giving Buyers Real Choices
The single biggest theme of 2026 is still the expansion of active listings. Richmond metro inventory reached roughly 3,278 homes in August, up about 18 percent year-over-year, Chesterfield offers the widest selection in the region, and Hampton Roads is holding near 6,100 active listings. Buyers who have felt limited by slim choices are finding real relief, and this fall is shaping up to be one of the best times of the year to shop.
2. Price Growth Is Steady, and a Little Different by Region
Central Virginia has settled into a sustainable single-digit groove, with the metro median up about 2.3 percent year-over-year per RAR and CVR MLS data, while Hampton Roads is still climbing more quickly, with a July median up about 5.9 percent. If you have been waiting for prices to cool before buying, Central Virginia is already giving you that breathing room, while Hampton Roads buyers should expect values to keep edging up.
3. Days on Market Are Normalizing Across the Board
Richmond metro homes sit about 37 days on market on average, county-level reports cluster around 18 to 22 days, and Hampton Roads averaged about 23 days in July. Homes are no longer selling in the two-day windows we saw in the pandemic years, but well-priced homes still move quickly. That means buyers have just enough time to do their homework, and sellers still see timely results when they price realistically.
4. Price Reductions Are Becoming More Common
Roughly 23 percent of Richmond-area listings have seen at least one price reduction in recent reporting, a number that was far lower during the pandemic boom. This is a sign of a healthier, more balanced market rather than a sign of weakness. For buyers it means real negotiating room in many price ranges, and for sellers it is a clear reminder that pricing in line with comparable sales from day one is more important than ever.
5. New Construction Incentives Are a Real Opportunity
Builders are responding to higher mortgage rates with real incentives. In communities across Glen Allen, Chesterfield, and Hanover, builders are offering roughly $15,000 to $25,000 in incentives, often in the form of rate buydowns or free upgrades, and Richmond's condo and townhome inventory has jumped about 22 percent year-over-year from new projects near Scott's Addition and Manchester. For buyers weighing new construction, this fall is an excellent time to ask what a builder can do for your bottom line.
6. The Market Is Splitting by Home Type in Hampton Roads
Detached homes on the Southside remain fast-moving and competitive, while attached homes, condos, and townhomes are softening, with days on market rising in places like Norfolk. If you are flexible on home type, the attached market offers more leverage right now, while well-priced detached homes still need a ready, pre-approved buyer to move quickly.
What Do the Numbers Mean for Your Situation?
Market data is most useful when we apply it to your specific circumstances. A first-time buyer looking at townhomes in Chesterfield will have a very different experience from a military family with fall PCS orders searching near Fort Gregg-Adams, or a longtime Henrico homeowner deciding whether to list before the holidays. Timing, home type, price range, and neighborhood all change what the numbers mean for you.
That is why I offer a free, no-obligation personalized market analysis for anyone buying or selling in the communities I serve. I will pull the most recent comparable sales from your specific neighborhood, walk you through what the data says, and give you honest, straightforward guidance about your options. No pressure and no gimmicks, just real, local information from someone who knows these communities inside and out.
Let Me Research Your Neighborhood
Whether you are buying your first home, relocating with the military, or thinking about selling, I can show you exactly what the market looks like in your specific community. Call, email, or schedule a time to talk.
Data sourced from the Central Virginia Multiple Listing Service (CVR MLS), the Real Estate Information Network (REIN) for Hampton Roads, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED, series MEDDAYONMAR40060 and ACTLISCOU40060), the Richmond Association of REALTORS, Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, Redfin Housing Market Data, the Zillow Home Value Index, and county-level real estate reports for Richmond City, Henrico County, Chesterfield County, Hanover County, New Kent County, and the Hampton Roads region. All figures reflect the most recent complete reporting windows (July 2026 for Hampton Roads, mid-2026 for the Richmond metro, and current September 2026 mortgage rate readings) as of mid-September and are subject to revision. Data varies modestly by source and geography. This information is provided for general informational purposes and does not constitute a formal appraisal or market analysis. Contact Shannon for a personalized evaluation of your specific property or search criteria.
Shannon Russell
Military Relocation Professional (MRP) and Realtor
Shannon helps military families, first-time home buyers, and local Virginia sellers navigate real estate transitions with clarity and confidence. She was awarded the 2025 Silver Award from Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate and serves the Richmond metro, surrounding counties, and the Hampton Roads area. Reach out for a personalized market analysis of your specific community.
Call Shannon at (804) 803-1080 or schedule a quick consultation
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